Re: The Mafia Revolutions [Day 4]

by Thel_JF November 21st 2012, 12:31 am

hes sheriff so hes worth more
well ill be quiet now and just wait for the outcome

by **Crimson** November 21st 2012, 12:37 am

I can't use the last will anymore, coz I used it already (I thought I would be dead today and you can only write it once).

by **Stunkata8** November 21st 2012, 12:56 am

But will u share here who u checked?

by **Crimson** November 21st 2012, 1:19 am

Yeah, Nakato and Miatsu. The other sheriff should not check them this night.
Anyways, it's my final night, so who should I check?

by **.::Nakato::.** November 21st 2012, 1:20 am

oh god you got me

by **Stunkata8** November 21st 2012, 1:36 am

I will then choose to believe crimson is the real sheriff, cuz of that and also the fact that both of them are in my unknown list (content 5-6 names) I change my accusition to nakato
My personal choice. But sata is still suspicious.

by **Ksarme** November 21st 2012, 1:38 am

@Crimson: You won't be able to reveal it if they kill you. :/
(but, if you'd somehow survive... I'd check sasuke153 or Wiza... or you could check me, just to be sure)

It's highly unlikely Crimson is lying, since mafia tried to kill him. So I'll take his word.
The question is: do we want to check if he's a true or a newbie sheriff by voting off either Miatsu or Nakato? This could clarify things a bit.

I, myself, am going to change my accusation to Nakato (because I feel bad about accusing my Kage ). I'm willing to take this chance, and also make the other sheriff be sure about his findings.

by **Crimson** November 21st 2012, 1:39 am

Meh, this is risky. I'd not try and kill them off now - either way, after this night you will all definitely know who is who (as in, if they were mafia or citizens). And the Vigilante's might use their brains then and kill the right people. But on the other hand, it is also risky to randomly choose someone else.

We have 13 players left. Cut Nakato, Miatsu, me and Stun out of it (assuming theyre not mafia and we two are not). We have 4 out of 9 possible mafia. The chance to randomly choose a mafia out of them is 4/9. But then again, if Nakato and Miatsu are mafia, the chance of choosing a mafia out of the rest is 2/9.

@Axer: I'll find a way to convey the person I check this night. Somehow.

Oh yeah, the POLICEMAN should lock up Miatsu or Nakato for this night. Just as a fail safe in case theyre mafia (if they arent and e.g. Miatsu or Nakato is the policeman, then he should lock up somebody else). Vigilante, ready your bullets (one mafia bullet is going to kill me, so the other might hit you - might risk shooting someone, but I'd wait for a better moment, like after my death). Real Sheriff, I'm going to check Wiza, so please go ahead and check somebody else. Also, dear other Sheriff, prepare a last will to be read out in public, so that if you die your work doesnt go to naught.

About the Sata accusation, I get a feeling he isnt a bad guy. But meh, I leave it up to the other sheriff, just don't check the people I've checked/am checking - others should seek out and verify for themselves.

by **Ksarme** November 21st 2012, 1:45 am

If I recall correctly, the type of sheriff was not revealed after death...?
I remember this rule. But it's not written in the topic. *is confused*

by **Crimson** November 21st 2012, 1:50 am

Aye, let's wait for Div to clarify. This could prove really problematic.

by NubKnightZ November 21st 2012, 1:53 am

Axer wrote:If I recall correctly, the type of sheriff was not revealed after death...?
I remember this rule. But it's not written in the topic. *is confused*

iirc, that was the case. At least it was a long time ago before this started again.

by **Crimson** November 21st 2012, 2:48 am

Ok, the chance of Nakato being mafia is 1/2. The chance of randomly choosing a Mafia from Group-{me, Stun, Miatsu, Nakato} is 4/9 (actually, I'd wager it's more like 4/8 or 4/7, since I personally don't believe certain people to be mafia). If Nakato is Mafia, then Miatsu also is. If he isn't then Miatsu is not mafia.

Let's take the worst case scenario. Nakato is not mafia, citizens lose 1. In the night mafia kill 2 people, citizens -2. The standing after this night citizen:mafia = 6:4. Not good. Also in this case, we lose me (sheriff) and Miatsu (since Nakato was not a mafia, then Miatsu also isnt and its in the mafia's interest to get rid of known citizens) and potentially only one citizen is known (stun).

The effectiveness of randomly choosing someone from the crowd (group-{me, stun, nakato, miatsu}) depends upon whether on my death it is announced what type of sheriff I was. If not, then it won't pay off coz we won't learn of Miatsu's and Nakato's true allegiance.

Generally, I'll make a list of what we know:

Definitely citizens: 1
Me

Probably citizens: 1
Stun (probably a spy)

sheriff or newbie sheriff checked: 2
Nakato- appeared as Mafia to me
Miatsu- appeared as Mafia to me

The rest: 9
Axer
Bourne
Sata
Anal
Wiza
Itachi.Byakuya
sasuke123
A
ank95

by **Ksarme** November 21st 2012, 3:20 am

Crimson wrote:In the night mafia kill 2 people, citizens -2. The standing after this night citizen:mafia = 6:4.

1 person. Mafia kills 2 people only in two cases:
1. When assassin uses his one-time power (what he already did).
2. When Godfather is the last mafia standing (he won't).

Also, you don't trust me, this makes me sad. :/

So it's either:
Nakato is the mafia. Then Miatsu is also mafia. At day 3 we get 11 people left standing, at least 1 of them is certain to be a citizen, and 1 is a mafia. Ratio 3 (2 after voting):8. Great!
or
Nakato isn't the mafia. At day 3, out of 11 people standing, we have at least 2 certain citizens we can trust, with ratio 4:7 we get basically 50% of getting the right target.

In both cases, the other sheriff knows what his findings mean, what greatly helps, especially in the second one.
I say we still do this and vote off Nakato.

by **Zeiin** November 21st 2012, 4:26 am

I'll trust Axer and Crimson on this one, if those two turn out to be Mafia then there will be two mafia left. I'm still watching Anal though, he's rarely participating and just on observing. Accusing Nakato.

by NubKnightZ November 21st 2012, 4:45 am

I want to say what I think so badly, but I'm not playing. Sad

by **CrawHawk IV** November 21st 2012, 7:31 am

Changing to Nakato.

by -Shivam- November 21st 2012, 9:01 am

I'm also Changing to Nakato.

by **Crimson** November 21st 2012, 1:56 pm

Axer wrote:
Crimson wrote:In the night mafia kill 2 people, citizens -2. The standing after this night citizen:mafia = 6:4.

1 person. Mafia kills 2 people only in two cases:
1. When assassin uses his one-time power (what he already did).
2. When Godfather is the last mafia standing (he won't).

Also, you don't trust me, this makes me sad. :/

So it's either:
Nakato is the mafia. Then Miatsu is also mafia. At day 3 we get 11 people left standing, at least 1 of them is certain to be a citizen, and 1 is a mafia. Ratio 3 (2 after voting):8. Great!
or
Nakato isn't the mafia. At day 3, out of 11 people standing, we have at least 2 certain citizens we can trust, with ratio 4:7 we get basically 50% of getting the right target.

In both cases, the other sheriff knows what his findings mean, what greatly helps, especially in the second one.
I say we still do this and vote off Nakato.

Argh, true. Misread how the assasin works.
And it's not that I mistrust you - I wrote the I'd personally wager that the chance of hitting the mafia from group-{me, stun, nakato, miatsu} is better than 4/9, but chose to be more objective here.

Ok, so we get Nakato this round. In the night I'll check out Wiza and try to convey the message somehow.
If Nakato is mafia then the vigilante should go ahead and kill Miatsu off, since he'll also be mafia. Otherwise, wait. Policeman, if Nakato is Mafia then I have no idea who to lock up xD Other Sheriff, you might check anal.

Let's have Nakato checked.

Oh, Nakato, sorry for having you lynched. If, by any chance, youre the other sheriff, then write a last will and convey to the rest who youve had checked up to now, thatll help the rest loads.

by **Remilia Scarlet** November 21st 2012, 2:54 pm

So... no one except me noticed that Nakato kept saying "I'm mafia, I'm mafia!" in both this game and the last game?

by **Crimson** November 21st 2012, 2:59 pm

No, I noticed, but hell, that doesn't mean anything just yet.

by **HBK** November 21st 2012, 4:58 pm

Also changing accusion to Nakato.

by NubKnightZ November 22nd 2012, 12:57 am

If I were playing I wouldn't have voted Nakato, tbh. (He's screwed anyway, so it's safe for me to talk)

by **HBK** November 22nd 2012, 5:36 am

NubKnightZ wrote:If I were playing I wouldn't have voted Nakato, tbh. (He's screwed anyway, so it's safe for me to talk)

If I weren't playing, I wouldn't post here to stay safe from divi xD

by NubKnightZ November 22nd 2012, 5:38 am

Bourne wrote:
NubKnightZ wrote:If I were playing I wouldn't have voted Nakato, tbh. (He's screwed anyway, so it's safe for me to talk)

If I weren't playing, I wouldn't post here to stay safe from divi xD

Lol. I'm being careful not to ruin the game. Spectators are allowed to have their fun too. >:[

by **HBK** November 22nd 2012, 5:43 am

NubKnightZ wrote:
Bourne wrote:
NubKnightZ wrote:If I were playing I wouldn't have voted Nakato, tbh. (He's screwed anyway, so it's safe for me to talk)

If I weren't playing, I wouldn't post here to stay safe from divi xD

Lol. I'm being careful not to ruin the game. Spectators are allowed to have their fun too. >:[

obviously lol, do play next time ^^

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